Data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), indicate that June and July 2026 were the hottest months ever observed in Western Europe. The report also notes that ocean surface temperatures in July reached a record level.

Globally, July 2026 ranks as the second warmest July on record, slightly lower than July 2024 by 0.01 degrees and second only to July 2023. The average surface air temperature for the month was 16.90 degrees, or 0.67 degrees above the 1991-2020 average and 1.47 degrees above the estimated pre-industrial average for 1850-1900, close to the 1.5-degree limit set by the Paris Agreement.

The average sea surface temperature, calculated between 60 degrees South and 60 degrees North and covering the Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Oceans and the Mediterranean Sea excluding the Arctic Ocean, was 20.96 degrees in July 2026, surpassing the previous record of 20.89 degrees set in 2023. Forecasts indicate that El Niño is expected to strengthen in the coming months. In Europe, record sea surface temperature values along the Atlantic and in the western Mediterranean were associated with marine heatwaves of strong or severe intensity. Prolonged heat and drought conditions also contributed to the spread and intensification of extreme wildfires.

Regarding Italian weather forecasts for the mid-August period, thunderstorms are expected over the Alps and Apennines, with possible hail, while high temperatures persist across the rest of the country. The subtropical anticyclone brings peak maximum temperatures between 36 and 38 degrees in several cities across central-northern Italy and the major islands, with Rome potentially reaching 39 degrees.

Antonio Navarra, president of the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), emphasizes the importance of climate adaptation: if one region or city adapts, for instance by preventing sea-level rise, and a neighboring one does not, the consequences of an extreme event will fall on the unprepared community. Navarra observes that the climate issue will outlast multiple political cycles and that the fundamental point is to continue reducing emissions, with benefits also in terms of energy autonomy. According to the expert, adaptation is closer to people and communities and therefore politically more feasible than mitigation alone.