Seasonal projections from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicate that August in Italy will see temperatures broadly above seasonal averages, with an associated risk of intense thunderstorms. The scenario is driven by the African anticyclone, the high-pressure system extending from the Sahara across the Mediterranean basin. Experts from the IlMeteo portal quantify the deviation from the norm at approximately 3 degrees Celsius above average across much of the peninsula, with peaks of up to 5 degrees above average in the North. Maximum temperatures are expected to frequently exceed 34-35 degrees across the northern plains, Tyrrhenian areas, Central-Southern regions and the major islands, with local exceedances above 40 degrees. As a reference point, during the second week of July, 45 degrees were recorded in inland areas of Sardinia, 42 in Nuoro, 41 in Caltanissetta, Foggia and Oristano, and 40 in Florence. Based on these values, some analyses suggest that temperatures close to 50 degrees could be reached in August in those same areas, though this is an indirect estimate rather than a specific model prediction.

Alongside high temperatures, the model signals the risk of violent weather phenomena. The progressive increase in heat in the lower atmospheric layers raises evaporation and humidity, fueling the energy available for convection. When the high-pressure regime breaks, due to the arrival of cooler air at altitude, sudden and intense thunderstorms could be triggered, bringing hailstorms, flash floods and downbursts, linear wind gusts that can exceed 100 km/h. Meteorologists note that these are seasonal forecasts based on physical-mathematical models and should be interpreted as an indication of a general trend, not as day-by-day predictions. Short-term bulletins will provide more precise indications on the days and areas actually affected. Meanwhile, other forecasts indicate that the current heat wave may ease in the coming week with the arrival of cooler currents, thunderstorms and a temperature drop of up to 10 degrees.