Data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), indicate that June and July 2026 were the two hottest months ever observed in Western Europe. The average surface air temperature for July was 16.90 degrees, which is 0.67 degrees above the 1991-2020 average for the month and 1.47 degrees above the estimated average for the pre-industrial period 1850-1900, close to the 1.5-degree limit set by the Paris Agreement.

Globally, July 2026 ranks as the second hottest July ever recorded, virtually tied with July 2024 (lower by 0.01 degrees) and second only to 2023. The average sea surface temperature also reached a new record for the month of July at 20.96 degrees, surpassing the previous high of 20.89 degrees set in 2023. Record sea surface temperature values along the Atlantic and in the western Mediterranean were associated with marine heat waves of strong or severe intensity, impacting coastal communities and ecosystems.

According to Copernicus, prolonged heat and drought conditions led to the spread and intensification of extreme wildfires. The report also highlights a feedback loop: as soils dry out they lose their capacity to provide natural cooling, meaning that high temperatures and drought reinforce each other.

The El Nino phenomenon, according to scientists' forecasts, is expected to strengthen further in the coming months. As for weather forecasts in Italy for the Ferragosto week, thunderstorms are expected over the Alps and Apennines, possibly accompanied by hail, while the rest of the country is set to experience still very high temperatures, with peak maximums up to 36-38 degrees in many cities across the Centre-North and the two major islands, and up to 39 degrees in Rome.

Antonio Navarra, president of the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC), emphasized the need to adapt to the effects of climate change. According to Navarra, adaptation is closer to people and communities and therefore more politically feasible than mitigation alone. The expert also noted that reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains a fundamental goal, with positive effects also on the economic and energy autonomy fronts.