One month before the elections in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt, scheduled for September 6, a poll by the Insa institute places Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) at 42%, up one point from the previous survey. The CDU of federal chancellor Friedrich Merz stands at 22%, twenty percentage points behind AfD. According to the same poll, Die Linke would be the third force at 13%, followed by the SPD at 6%. The Greens and the FDP, both at 4%, would remain outside the regional Landtag in Magdeburg.

AfD aims to secure an absolute majority of seats. The party's branch in Saxony-Anhalt has been classified by German intelligence services as a confirmed case of right-wing extremism. Since its founding over a decade ago, AfD has never been part of a governing coalition in any of the 16 states or at the federal level, due to the policy known as the Brandmauer, the firewall through which traditional parties refuse to cooperate with the formation.

The election outcome will partly depend on whether smaller parties enter the regional parliament, as they must exceed the 5% threshold to win seats. If some fail to reach it, AfD would benefit. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), formed from a split of Die Linke in early 2024, is emerging as a potential kingmaker: in the Insa poll it reached 5%.

The BSW's lead candidate, Thomas Schulze, stated that only the party's entry into the Landtag could prevent a new mandate for the CDU, adding that AfD alone will not secure a majority. Schulze proposed a model of shifting majorities and a coalition president in the regional parliament, with the goal of reducing polarization. AfD's lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, rejected the idea, insisting on the need for a stable government in Saxony-Anhalt.

BSW founder Sahra Wagenknecht declared that if the party enters the Landtag, the CDU's candidate for the state presidency, Sven Schulze, will not be able to count on BSW votes. The party has not, however, committed to supporting an AfD-led government. CDU, Die Linke, and SPD together would reach 41%, one point less than AfD: with BSW abstaining, AfD could manage to elect the minister-president alone on the third ballot.