A fourth heat wave is expected to reach Italy during the week of late July 2026, with forecast models indicating it could last at least until August 7-8 and possibly beyond. Peak temperatures are expected to reach 40-41 degrees in parts of central and northern Italy, particularly between Rome and the Po Valley, while the rest of the country will see values around 35 degrees. Nighttime minimum temperatures are projected to remain above 25 degrees in many plain areas, resulting in so-called tropical nights. The wave is associated with a new subtropical anticyclone advancing from North Africa toward the Mediterranean, on a trajectory expected to directly affect the Italian peninsula. The pattern resembles the third heat wave experienced earlier in the season.

According to atmospheric physicist Lorenzo Giovannini of the University of Trento, the heat waves this summer have followed one another with very brief intervals, making them almost a single extended heat event. Giovannini noted that elevated temperatures could continue through August, though reliable long-term forecasts remain difficult. Forecasts from the Italian Air Force, as reported by Repubblica, indicate temperatures in Italy may return to seasonal averages only in September.

AccuWeather reports that this fourth wave could make July 2026 the hottest ever recorded in Europe. AccuWeather's international chief meteorologist Jason Nicholls stated that each successive heat wave compounds the effects of dry soil, ongoing drought, and stressed vegetation, increasing wildfire risk while placing pressure on water reserves, agriculture, and public health. AccuWeather data indicate over 254,000 hectares have burned across the European Union so far this year.

In the Veneto region, the first half of the summer (June 1 to July 20) set a record with a regional average above 23 degrees, surpassing the previous record of 22.7 degrees set in 2003 and 2022. Met Office director Penny Endersby, interviewed by the Financial Times, stated that what appears to be an abnormal summer will increasingly become the norm due to the rapid pace of climate change. Meanwhile, the El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific is reportedly intensifying beyond usual levels, with projections suggesting it could exceed 3 degrees between autumn 2026 and early 2027.

The ongoing heat has drawn comparisons with the summer of 2003, which remains one of the reference points for extreme heat events in Europe.